METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2011
Lightweight
VS
56%
Diaz
44%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Donald Cerrone · UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 56% vs Cerrone at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazCerrone
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
28.2
53.4
Performance Avg
53.0
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Diaz
Cerrone
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
6.7
3.2
Style: Volume
3.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
10 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
68
Head
21
17
Body
8
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
85Distance30
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Diaz
Cerrone
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.6
10
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Diaz
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
10
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
DiazCerrone
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
87 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
87 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (78% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (64% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerSubmission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01