UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2011
Lightweight
VS
56%
Diaz
44%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 56% vs Cerrone at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Diaz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Diaz
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
28.2
53.4
Performance Avg
53.0
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Diaz
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
68
Head
21
17
Body
8
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
85Distance30
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Diaz
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Diaz
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
10
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
DiazCerrone
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
87 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
87 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (78% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (64% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01