UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2024
Featherweight
VS
45%
Kattar
55%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
This is a genuine toss-up — Kattar at 45% vs Sterling at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Kattar throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kattar's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kattar
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kattar
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
54.2
44.4
Performance Avg
54.2
43
Quality of Victory
38
33
Momentum Score
71
Kattar
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
0
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Kattar
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kattar
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/33 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Kattar
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
71
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Kattar
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kattar
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
KattarSterling
Strike Zones
Kattar
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedSterling
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the body (50% of attacks) — Kattar absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kattar
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
Kattar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kattar · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Youssef ZalalRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Arnold AllenRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08