UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Flyweight
VS
72%
Schnell
28%
Beltran
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Schnell
Schnell is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Schnell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Beltran has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Schnell
Beltran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schnell
Beltran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
14.6
40.7
Performance Avg
39.9
37
Quality of Victory
33
45
Momentum Score
45
Schnell
Beltran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
0
Body
3
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance13
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Schnell
Beltran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Schnell
Beltran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Schnell
Beltran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Schnell
Beltran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Schnell
Beltran
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
SchnellBeltran
Strike Zones
Schnell
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedBeltran
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the head (77% of attacks) — Beltran absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Beltran targets the head (46% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Schnell
RND
Beltran
0/0R00/0
Schnell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Beltran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Schnell · Last 5
Upcoming
Imanol RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
Beltran · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matt SchnellRating 5.7Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Joe SotoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Reginaldo VieiraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Guangyou NingRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11