UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Lightweight
VS
52%
Yakovlev
48%
Silva
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:10
AY
CFR 15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Yakovlev
This is a genuine toss-up — Yakovlev at 52% vs Silva at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Yakovlev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Silva throws more volume but Yakovlev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Yakovlev's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Yakovlev
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
73"
41
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Yakovlev
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
14.5
40.2
Performance Avg
25.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
36
Momentum Score
17
Yakovlev
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
7Ground1
Yakovlev
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Yakovlev
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/34 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Yakovlev
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
17
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Yakovlev
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yakovlev
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
YakovlevSilva
Strike Zones
Yakovlev
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSilva
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yakovlev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (100% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yakovlev
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Yakovlev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Yakovlev · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt RobertsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · Sub · R2
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Zak CummingsRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
Silva · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Brad RiddellRating 5.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Kazula VargasRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
L · Sub · R2
Alexander YakovlevRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04