UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Flyweight
VS
26%
Pettis
74%
Nam
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nam
Nam is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nam has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Striking split: Nam throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis
Nam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Nam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.2
39.9
40.7
Performance Avg
50.0
25
Quality of Victory
58
55
Momentum Score
33
Pettis
Nam
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
13
3
Body
4
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
42Distance15
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Pettis
Nam
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pettis
Nam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
80
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Pettis
Nam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
33
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Pettis
Nam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Nam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
PettisNam
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedNam
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (79% of attacks) — Nam absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Nam targets the head (76% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Nam
0/0R00/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nam · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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