★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Lesnar
52%
Carwin
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
BL
Brock Lesnar
5 – 3
6'3"81" reachOrthodox48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 24
SC
Shane Carwin
"The Engineer"
12 – 2
Knockout Artist2-fight slide51 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'2"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carwin

This is a genuine toss-up — Lesnar at 48% vs Carwin at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Carwin throws more volume but Lesnar connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lesnar's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lesnar
Carwin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
81"+
Reach
80"
48+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lesnar
Carwin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.6
25.1
69.0
Performance Avg
68.7
77
Quality of Victory
70
66
Momentum Score
65
Lesnar
Carwin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.3
70%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Lesnar
Carwin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lesnar
Carwin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Lesnar
Carwin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
65
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Lesnar
Carwin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lesnar
Carwin
Striking6.1 / 10.0Volume3.1 / 1.3Grappling2.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
Lesnar
Strike Zones
Carwin
Lesnar
Attacking
1HEAD4BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Carwin
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD4BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lesnar targets the body (80% of attacks) — Carwin absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lesnar
RND
Carwin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lesnar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L4.5W5.1W5.1W5.1W1.5L1.5L2008-022008-112010-072011-12
WinLossTrend

Carwin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.1L5.5L2008-052008-102009-032010-032010-072011-06
WinLossTrend

Lesnar · Last 5

Upcoming
Mark Hunt
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Alistair OvereemRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R2
Shane CarwinRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R2
Frank MirRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 100 · 2009-07

Carwin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
L · Sub · R2
Brock LesnarRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · KO · R1
Neil WainRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10

News & Media

Brock Lesnar · Shane Carwin
← Back to fights