METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman
Las Vegas, USA
23 Jan 2008
Lightweight
VS
80%
Diaz
20%
Robinson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:39
def. Alvin Robinson · UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Robinson has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazRobinson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Robinson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
68"
41+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
Robinson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
8.8
53.4
Performance Avg
25.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
22
Diaz
Robinson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
0.8
3.2
Style: Volume
8.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground2
Diaz
Robinson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
10
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Robinson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
4/24 fights
Diaz
Robinson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Robinson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Robinson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
DiazRobinson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRobinson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Robinson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Robinson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Robinson
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Robinson · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Mark BocekSubmission
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R1
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01
W · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelDecision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · KO · R1
Kenny FlorianKO/TKO
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07