UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman
Las Vegas, USA
23 Jan 2008
Lightweight
VS
80%
Diaz
20%
Robinson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
Diaz is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Robinson has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Diaz
Robinson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
68"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
Robinson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
8.8
53.4
Performance Avg
25.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
22
Diaz
Robinson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground2
Diaz
Robinson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Robinson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
4/24 fights
Diaz
Robinson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Robinson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Robinson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
DiazRobinson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRobinson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Robinson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Robinson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Robinson
0/0R00/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Robinson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Robinson · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Mark BocekRating 4Submission
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R1
Nate DiazRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01
W · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelRating 4.5Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · KO · R1
Kenny FlorianRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07