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UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Las Vegas, USA
17 Sept 2022
Women's Flyweight
VS
41%
Agapova
59%
Robertson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
Mariya
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
105
5'6"68" reachSouthpaw29 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 41
Gillian
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
178
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'5"
CFR 59
★ Official Result
Gillian RobertsonwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:19
def. Mariya Agapova · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Robertson
Actual result
Robertson wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Agapova at 41% vs Robertson at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Agapova throws more volume but Robertson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Agapova's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Robertson has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AgapovaRobertson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Agapova
Robertson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
63"
29+
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Agapova
Robertson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.9
59.1
43.0
Performance Avg
55.0
50
Quality of Victory
45
33
Momentum Score
74
Agapova
Robertson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Agapova
Robertson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.7
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Agapova
Robertson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
20/25 fights
Agapova
Robertson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
74
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Agapova
Robertson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
71%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
7
0
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Agapova
Robertson
Striking0.7 / 3.5Volume0.7 / 3.7Grappling8.0 / 4.7Wrestling5.6 / 3.3Submission10.0 / 5.0Pressure8.0 / 7.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Agapova
Strike Zones
Robertson
Agapova
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Robertson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Agapova targets the body (100% of attacks) — Robertson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Robertson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Agapova absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Agapova
RND
Robertson
0/0R00/0

Agapova · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W2.8L5.5W3.3L4.0L3.2L2020-062020-082021-102022-032022-092024-07
WinLossTrend

Robertson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9W2.1L5.6W5.2W2.5L5.5W4.5W5.7L6.3L6.0W6.1L5.5W6.0W6.2L5.5W4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W2017-122019-102021-122024-012026-03
WinLossTrend

Agapova · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Luana SantosRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Sub · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
L · Sub · R2
Maryna MorozRating 3.3
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Sub · R3
Sabina MazoRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
L · KO · R2
Shana DobsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08

Robertson · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Polyana VianaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

News & Media

Mariya Agapova · Gillian Robertson
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