UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Stockholm, Sweden
4 Oct 2014
Welterweight
VS
77%
Nelson
23%
Story
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Story throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Story has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Story
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Story
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
17.0
52.8
Performance Avg
46.0
46
Quality of Victory
35
61
Momentum Score
65
Nelson
Story
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
69%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
27
2
Body
18
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance45
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Story
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Story
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Nelson
Story
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
65
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Nelson
Story
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Story
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
NelsonStory
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedStory
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (81% of attacks) — Story absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Story targets the head (56% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Story
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Story · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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