Kevin Lee vs Magomed Mustafaev — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2

Belfast, United Kingdom

19 Nov 2016

Lightweight

63%

Lee

37%

Mustafaev

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 4:31

Kevin Lee

"The Motown Phenom"

18 – 8

5'9"77" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 35

Magomed Mustafaev

"The Sniper"

14 – 4

Striker38 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"

CFR 21

★ Official Result

Kevin LeewinsSubmissionR2 · 4:31

def. Magomed Mustafaev · UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Lee

→

Actual result

Lee wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

Lee holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Mustafaev has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Lee's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

LeeMustafaev

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Lee

Mustafaev

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"+

Height

5'8"

77"+

Reach

71"

34+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Lee

Mustafaev

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

35.2

20.6

48.3

Performance Avg

53.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Lee

Mustafaev

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.0

/ 10

7.9

/ 10

5.6

Style: Pressure

6.5

4.1

Style: Volume

1.2

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance5

2Clinch2

8Ground3

Lee

Mustafaev

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.8

/ 10

0.0

/ 10

2.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.0

3.6

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Lee

Mustafaev

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

13 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/26 fights

Chin rating based on

5/18 fights

Lee

Mustafaev

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R4

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R1

W · R2

Lee

Mustafaev

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lee

Mustafaev

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.9

3.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.0

2.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.0

3.6

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.5

4.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

1.2

Lee

Strike Zones

Mustafaev

Lee

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Mustafaev

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Lee targets the head (82% of attacks) — Mustafaev absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Mustafaev targets the head (80% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lee

RND

Mustafaev

0/0R00/0

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

L · Dec · R3

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08

L · Sub · R3

Charles Oliveira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

W · KO · R1

Gregor Gillespie

KO/TKO

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

L · Sub · R4

Rafael Dos Anjos

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Mustafaev · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Brad Riddell

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02

W · KO · R1

Rafael Fiziev

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

L · Sub · R2

Kevin Lee

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11

W · KO · R1

Joe Proctor

KO/TKO

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12

W · R2

Piotr Hallmann

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06

News & Media

Kevin Lee · Magomed Mustafaev

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