Kevin Lee vs Magomed Mustafaev — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2

Belfast, United Kingdom

19 Nov 2016

Lightweight

63%

Lee

37%

Mustafaev

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 4:31

Kevin Lee

"The Motown Phenom"

18 – 8

5'9"77" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 35

Magomed Mustafaev

"The Sniper"

14 – 4

Striker37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"

CFR 21

★ Official Result

Kevin LeewinsSubmissionR2 · 4:31

def. Magomed Mustafaev · UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Lee

→

Actual result

Lee wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

Lee holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Mustafaev has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mustafaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lee's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

LeeMustafaev

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Lee

Mustafaev

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"+

Height

5'8"

77"+

Reach

71"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Lee

Mustafaev

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

35.2

20.6

48.3

Performance Avg

53.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Lee

Mustafaev

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.4

42%

Strike Accuracy

59%

3.0

Striking Style Score (/10)

7.9

2 KOs

KO Finishes

2 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance5

2Clinch2

8Ground3

Lee

Mustafaev

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

—

0.1

Sub Attempts / fight

—

3.8

Grappling Style Score (/10)

0.0

2.6

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

0.0

0:00

Control Time (this fight)

0:00

Reversals

Lee

Mustafaev

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

13 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/26 fights

Chin rating based on

5/18 fights

Lee

Mustafaev

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R4

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R1

W · R2

Lee

Mustafaev

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lee

Mustafaev

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.9

3.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.0

2.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.0

3.6

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.5

4.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

1.2

Lee

Strike Zones

Mustafaev

Lee

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Mustafaev

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Lee targets the head (82% of attacks) — Mustafaev absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Mustafaev targets the head (80% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lee

RND

Mustafaev

0/0R00/0

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7

WinLossTrend

Mustafaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7

WinLossTrend

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

L · Dec · R3

Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08

L · Sub · R3

Charles OliveiraRating 4.2

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

W · KO · R1

Gregor GillespieRating 5

KO/TKO

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

L · Sub · R4

Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Mustafaev · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Brad RiddellRating 5.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02

W · KO · R1

Rafael FizievRating 6

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

L · Sub · R2

Kevin LeeRating 2.8

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11

W · KO · R1

Joe ProctorRating 5

KO/TKO

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12

W · R2

Piotr HallmannRating 4.2

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06

News & Media

Kevin Lee · Magomed Mustafaev

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