UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Welterweight
VS
72%
Pereira
28%
Connelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
Pereira is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Pereira throws more volume but Connelly connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pereira's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pereira
Connelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pereira
Connelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.1
18.6
50.5
Performance Avg
28.3
40
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
40
Pereira
Connelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
26
1
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance7
1Clinch1
0Ground23
Pereira
Connelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pereira
Connelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/46 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Pereira
Connelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pereira
Connelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Connelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
PereiraConnelly
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedConnelly
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Connelly absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Connelly targets the head (84% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Connelly
0/0R00/0
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Connelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Shara MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
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L · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R5
Anthony HernandezRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
Connelly · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09