METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Flyweight
VS
46%
Chairez
54%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 59
★ Official Result
Joshua VanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Edgar Chairez · UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Van
→
Actual result
Van wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chairez at 46% vs Van at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChairezVan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chairez
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
71"+
Reach
65"
30
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chairez
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.5
68.6
54.7
Performance Avg
63.7
47
Quality of Victory
46
54
Momentum Score
100
Chairez
Van
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
5.5
3.3
Style: Volume
6.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
0
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Chairez
Van
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
4.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
7.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chairez
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Chairez
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Chairez
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chairez
Van
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
ChairezVan
Strike Zones
Chairez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedVan
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the head (91% of attacks) — Van absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (63% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chairez
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
Chairez · Last 5
Upcoming
Tim ElliottNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · Sub · R1
Bruno SilvaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
CJ VergaraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Van · Last 5
Upcoming
Alexandre PantojaUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalDecision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaKO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06