UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Flyweight
VS
45%
Chairez
55%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Edgar
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
13 – 6
5'7"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Joshua
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
17 – 2
Well-Rounded7-fight win streak24 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Van

This is a genuine toss-up — Chairez at 45% vs Van at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Van has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Chairez
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
71"+
Reach
65"
30
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chairez
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
67.8
50.6
Performance Avg
62.6
44
Quality of Victory
44
54
Momentum Score
100
Chairez
Van
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
3.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
59%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
0
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Chairez
Van
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chairez
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Chairez
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Chairez
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chairez
Van
Striking1.2 / 5.8Volume3.9 / 6.6Grappling6.1 / 1.4Wrestling4.3 / 1.0Submission6.7 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Chairez
Strike Zones
Van
Chairez
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD6BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Van
Attacking
15HEAD6BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the head (91% of attacks) — Van absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (63% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chairez
RND
Van
0/0R00/0

Chairez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0107.2L5.0W7.1L5.0W5.1W2023-072024-022024-092025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Van · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.9L5.5W4.6W4.7W6.4W5.3W6.3W7.2W2023-062024-072025-032025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Chairez · Last 5

Upcoming
Bruno Silva
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
CJ VergaraRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Van · Last 5

W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

News & Media

Edgar Chairez · Joshua Van
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