Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Lightweight

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Inglewood, USA

18 Jan 2025

Lightweight

60%

Makhachev

40%

Moicano

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 4:05

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Renato Moicano

21 – 7

Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"

CFR 50

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:05

def. Renato Moicano · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Makhachev holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Moicano has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevMoicano

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Moicano

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

+5'11"

70"

Reach

+72"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Makhachev

Moicano

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

50.3

69.4

Performance Avg

51.7

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Makhachev

Moicano

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

2.1

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

6.3

5.0

Style: Volume

3.8

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance9

0Clinch0

1Ground0

Makhachev

Moicano

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

5.0

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.5

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

5.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Moicano

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

11 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

21/28 fights

Makhachev

Moicano

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

W · R2

Makhachev

Moicano

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

62%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Moicano

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.1

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

5.0

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.5

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.4

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.3

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.8

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Moicano

Makhachev

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Moicano

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (83% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 83% of strikes there

🎯Moicano targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Moicano

0/0R00/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Moicano · Last 5

Upcoming

Brian Ortega

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · Sub · R2

Chris Duncan

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04

L · Dec · R3

Beneil Dariush

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · Sub · R1

Islam Makhachev

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · R2

Benoit Saint Denis

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Renato Moicano

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