★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
60%
Makhachev
40%
Moicano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:05
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs16-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
Renato
Renato Moicano
21 – 7
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

Makhachev holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Moicano has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Moicano throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.5
50.3
69.8
Performance Avg
51.7
53
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
64
Makhachev
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Makhachev
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
6
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/29 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Makhachev
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
64
16-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Makhachev
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
62%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
8
Submission Wins
7
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Moicano
Striking3.6 / 2.1Volume4.7 / 3.8Grappling4.6 / 5.0Wrestling3.2 / 3.5Submission4.7 / 5.4Pressure7.4 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Moicano
Makhachev
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Moicano
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (83% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Moicano · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.4L5.0W5.5W3.2L2.0L5.0W2.5L6.0W6.1W5.7L5.0W5.7W6.5W5.9W3.5L6.5L6.4W2014-122018-082021-062024-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Moicano · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Renato Moicano
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