UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Jun 2016
Featherweight
VS
58%
Ortega
42%
Guida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:40
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
5'8"69" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 62
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 58% vs Guida at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ortega has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Ortega has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortega
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+70"
35+
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
44.2
53.7
Performance Avg
40.7
48
Quality of Victory
35
80
Momentum Score
78
Ortega
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
36%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
14
3
Body
6
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
31Distance20
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ortega
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortega
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/21 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Ortega
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Ortega
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
39%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
5
1
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortega
Guida
Striking5.0 / 2.1Volume2.2 / 5.9Grappling4.3 / 3.7Wrestling3.0 / 2.6Submission5.0 / 2.8Pressure8.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Ortega
Strike Zones
Guida
Ortega
Attacking
28HEAD3BODY1LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD3BODY1LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (88% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (70% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortega
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

Brian Ortega · Clay Guida
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