METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
San Diego, USA
1 Aug 2010
Lightweight
VS
41%
Elkins
59%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:41
CFR 63
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsSubmissionR1 · 0:41
def. Darren Elkins · UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 41% vs Oliveira at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
63.3
45.5
Performance Avg
58.6
35
Quality of Victory
51
66
Momentum Score
100
Elkins
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
8.0
6.3
Style: Volume
2.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Elkins
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.1
1.6
Submission Style (/10)
6.8
3
Submission wins
17
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elkins
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
31/41 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Elkins
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Elkins
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
84%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
17
12
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
ElkinsOliveira
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Yadier del ValleKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04