UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Welterweight
VS
45%
Cerrone
55%
Morono
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morono
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 45% vs Morono at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morono has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Morono
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Morono
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
35.0
53.0
Performance Avg
43.3
47
Quality of Victory
35
63
Momentum Score
20
Cerrone
Morono
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
10 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
28
10
Body
5
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance30
1Clinch5
0Ground0
Cerrone
Morono
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Morono
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
20
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Cerrone
Morono
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
20
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Cerrone
Morono
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
31%
10
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Morono
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
CerroneMorono
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedMorono
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the body (59% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Morono targets the head (80% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Morono
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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Upcoming
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