UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Anaheim, USA
23 Feb 2013
Welterweight
VS
68%
McGee
32%
Neer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGee
McGee holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Neer has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Neer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McGee's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neer has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McGee
Neer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McGee
Neer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
18.1
40.1
Performance Avg
39.5
36
Quality of Victory
39
50
Momentum Score
100
McGee
Neer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
5
3
Body
4
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance7
1Clinch3
17Ground0
McGee
Neer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGee
Neer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
15/52 fights
McGee
Neer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · R2
McGee
Neer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGee
Neer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
McGeeNeer
Strike Zones
McGee
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedNeer
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGee targets the head (82% of attacks) — Neer absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Neer targets the head (50% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGee
RND
Neer
0/0R00/0
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Neer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
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Neer · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Justin EdwardsRating 1.5Submission
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L · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5Submission
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W · R2
Keith WisniewskiRating 4.2UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10