METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Interim Heavyweight
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Interim Heavyweight
VS
43%
Pavlovich
57%
Aspinall
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:09
★ Official Result
Tom AspinallwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:09
def. Sergei Pavlovich · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aspinall
→
Actual result
Aspinall wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 43% vs Aspinall at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PavlovichAspinall
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
84"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.5
83.0
62.0
Performance Avg
77.7
53
Quality of Victory
70
72
Momentum Score
100
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
7.7
Style: Pressure
9.7
3.3
Style: Volume
1.8
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.7
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
PavlovichAspinall
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAspinall
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Aspinall targets the head (70% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Aspinall
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pavlovich · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikDecision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesKO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07