★ Championship Bout · Interim Heavyweight
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Interim Heavyweight
VS
42%
Pavlovich
58%
Aspinall
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aspinall
This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 42% vs Aspinall at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
84"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
83.0
60.6
Performance Avg
77.7
53
Quality of Victory
70
59
Momentum Score
100
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
4.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
69%
8.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Aspinall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.7
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
PavlovichAspinall
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAspinall
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Aspinall targets the head (70% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Aspinall
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Aspinall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
Tallison TeixeiraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07