UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
45%
Diaz
55%
Miller
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:09
ND
Nate Diaz
22 – 13
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 35
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'8"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 45% vs Miller at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Diaz
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
76"+
Reach
71"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
43.5
53.4
Performance Avg
51.5
50
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
28
Diaz
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
5
3
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance6
15Clinch3
0Ground0
Diaz
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.7
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
47/58 fights
Diaz
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
28
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Diaz
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
10
Submission Wins
14
4
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diaz
Miller
Striking2.4 / 3.4Volume3.2 / 3.5Grappling5.6 / 4.7Wrestling3.9 / 3.3Submission6.3 / 5.0Pressure7.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Diaz
Strike Zones
Miller
Diaz
Attacking
16HEAD3BODY4LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Miller
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD3BODY4LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (70% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (56% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diaz
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Nate Diaz · Jim Miller
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