UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Featherweight
VS
77%
Poirier
23%
Garza
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:32
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
PG
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
12 – 4
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier
Garza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Garza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
18.2
58.2
Performance Avg
47.8
50
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
53
Poirier
Garza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Poirier
Garza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Garza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
6/16 fights
Poirier
Garza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Poirier
Garza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
67%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Garza
Striking6.0 / 4.3Volume4.0 / 3.7Grappling2.2 / 3.5Wrestling1.6 / 2.4Submission1.8 / 3.3Pressure6.6 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Poirier
Strike Zones
Garza
Poirier
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Garza
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garza absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Garza
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Garza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W4.1L5.5L4.5W1.5L2010-122011-042011-112012-052012-112013-04
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Garza · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Diego BrandaoRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
W · Dec · R3
Mark HominickRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
L · Sub · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 4.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
W · Sub · R1
Yves JabouinRating 5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Pablo Garza
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