UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
13 Oct 2012
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Nogueira
42%
Herman
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:31
AR
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34 – 10
6'3"77" reachOrthodox49 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
DH
Dave Herman
22 – 6
Knockout Artist4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nogueira

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 58% vs Herman at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Herman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herman has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nogueira
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
49
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
14.2
49.3
Performance Avg
41.0
52
Quality of Victory
55
91
Momentum Score
20
Nogueira
Herman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
61%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance0
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Nogueira
Herman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
22
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Nogueira
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Nogueira
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Herman
Striking2.9 / 10.0Volume4.1 / 0.4Grappling4.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.9 / 0.0Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Herman
Nogueira
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Herman
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W5.2W2.1L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W2.1L1.5L5.5L2007-072009-082011-122014-042015-08
WinLossTrend

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0105.2W2.8L1.5L2.8L1.5L2011-062012-022012-052012-102013-07
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · KO · R2
Jon Olav EinemoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06

News & Media

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · Dave Herman
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