UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Bantamweight
VS
78%
Garbrandt
22%
Mizugaki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garbrandt
Garbrandt is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garbrandt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Mizugaki throws more volume but Garbrandt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Garbrandt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mizugaki has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
65"
Reach
+69"
34+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.6
16.4
51.6
Performance Avg
40.1
47
Quality of Victory
29
97
Momentum Score
98
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
38%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
3
0
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance4
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
98
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
13%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garbrandt
Mizugaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
GarbrandtMizugaki
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMizugaki
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (83% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (75% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garbrandt
RND
Mizugaki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Mizugaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09