METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Bantamweight
VS
96%
O'Malley
4%
Moutinho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:33
★ Official Result
Sean O'MalleywinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:33
def. Kris Moutinho · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
O'Malley
→
Actual result
O'Malley wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
O'Malley is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 64 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
O'Malley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Risk flags
O'Malley's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moutinho has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
O'MalleyMoutinho
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
O'Malley
Moutinho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
O'Malley
Moutinho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.2
2.6
60.5
Performance Avg
0.0
48
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
O'Malley
Moutinho
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.9
Style: Volume
0.0
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
65
Head
16
15
Body
1
3
Leg
10
RangeRange
83Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
O'Malley
Moutinho
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Malley
Moutinho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
32
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
O'Malley
Moutinho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
O'Malley
Moutinho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
O'Malley
Moutinho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
O'MalleyMoutinho
Strike Zones
O'Malley
Attacking
83 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedMoutinho
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
83 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯O'Malley targets the head (78% of attacks) — Moutinho absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Moutinho targets the head (59% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
O'Malley
RND
Moutinho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
O'Malley · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Aiemann ZahabiKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
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L · Sub · R3
Merab DvalishviliSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R5
Marlon VeraDecision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Moutinho · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Cristian QuinonezDecision
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L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Guido CannettiKO/TKO
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L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07