UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Bantamweight
VS
96%
O'Malley
4%
Moutinho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: O'Malley
O'Malley is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
O'Malley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.
O'Malley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
O'Malley's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moutinho has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
O'Malley
Moutinho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
O'Malley
Moutinho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.3
2.6
59.5
Performance Avg
0.0
47
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
O'Malley
Moutinho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.5
62%
Strike Accuracy
32%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
65
Head
16
15
Body
1
3
Leg
10
RangeRange
83Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
O'Malley
Moutinho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Malley
Moutinho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
32
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
O'Malley
Moutinho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
O'Malley
Moutinho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
O'Malley
Moutinho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
O'MalleyMoutinho
Strike Zones
O'Malley
Attacking
83 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedMoutinho
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
83 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯O'Malley targets the head (78% of attacks) — Moutinho absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Moutinho targets the head (59% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
O'Malley
RND
Moutinho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
O'Malley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Moutinho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
O'Malley · Last 5
Upcoming
Aiemann ZahabiUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 5.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R5
Marlon VeraRating 5.3Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Moutinho · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Cristian QuinonezRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07