UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
32%
Castillo
68%
Means
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Means

Means holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Castillo has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Means has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Castillo
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+75"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castillo
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
36.5
40.6
Performance Avg
45.2
34
Quality of Victory
41
89
Momentum Score
40
Castillo
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
0
Body
9
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance17
0Clinch2
0Ground2
Castillo
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Castillo
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
40
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Castillo
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
53%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castillo
Means
Striking3.9 / 5.0Volume6.7 / 4.8Grappling1.7 / 2.2Wrestling1.2 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.3Pressure3.5 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Castillo
Strike Zones
Means
Castillo
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD9BODY3LEGS21 absorbed
Means
Attacking
9HEAD9BODY3LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (92% of attacks) — Means absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (43% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castillo
RND
Means
0/0R00/0

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
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L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
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News & Media

Danny Castillo · Tim Means
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