METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
32%
Castillo
68%
Means
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Danny CastillowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tim Means · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Means
→
Actual result
Castillo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Means holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Castillo has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CastilloMeans
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Castillo
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+75"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castillo
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
36.5
40.6
Performance Avg
45.2
34
Quality of Victory
41
89
Momentum Score
40
Castillo
Means
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
5.3
6.7
Style: Volume
4.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
0
Body
9
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance17
0Clinch2
0Ground2
Castillo
Means
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Castillo
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Castillo
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
40
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Castillo
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
53%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Castillo
Means
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
CastilloMeans
Strike Zones
Castillo
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedMeans
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (92% of attacks) — Means absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (43% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Castillo
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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