UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Welterweight
VS
53%
Patrick
47%
Ebersole
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CP
Claude Patrick
"The Prince"
14 – 2
5'11"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
BE
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51 – 18
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Patrick

This is a genuine toss-up — Patrick at 53% vs Ebersole at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ebersole has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Patrick
Ebersole
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Patrick
Ebersole
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.8
17.4
49.9
Performance Avg
44.2
33
Quality of Victory
32
79
Momentum Score
75
Patrick
Ebersole
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance1
3Clinch4
0Ground4
Patrick
Ebersole
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Patrick
Ebersole
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/69 fights
Patrick
Ebersole
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
75
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Patrick
Ebersole
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Patrick
Ebersole
Striking1.5 / 3.3Volume6.8 / 7.7Grappling4.3 / 1.9Wrestling3.0 / 1.3Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.6 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Patrick
Strike Zones
Ebersole
Patrick
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Ebersole
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Patrick targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ebersole targets the head (67% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Patrick
RND
Ebersole
0/0R00/0

Patrick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L2010-062010-102011-042011-12
WinLossTrend

Ebersole · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2011-022011-122012-072014-092015-06
WinLossTrend

Patrick · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RobertsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · Dec · R3
James WilksRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
W · Sub · R2
Ricardo FunchRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · 2010-06

Ebersole · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

News & Media

Claude Patrick · Brian Ebersole
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