UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2023
Bantamweight
VS
94%
Saaiman
6%
Mitchell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Saaiman
Saaiman is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Saaiman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Saaiman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Saaiman's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Saaiman
Mitchell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
67"
Reach
+74"
25+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Saaiman
Mitchell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.3
3.4
47.0
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
75
Momentum Score
0
Saaiman
Mitchell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
35%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
4Clinch2
14Ground1
Saaiman
Mitchell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Saaiman
Mitchell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/12 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Saaiman
Mitchell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Saaiman
Mitchell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Saaiman
Mitchell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SaaimanMitchell
Strike Zones
Saaiman
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMitchell
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Saaiman targets the head (83% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Mitchell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Saaiman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Saaiman
RND
Mitchell
0/0R00/0
Saaiman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Saaiman · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Payton TalbottRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Terrence MitchellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Mitchell · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R1
Cameron SaaimanRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07