UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fortaleza, Brazil
11 Mar 2017
Bantamweight
VS
77%
Yahya
23%
Soto
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Yahya
Yahya is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Soto has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Yahya's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Soto has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Yahya
Soto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
67"+
Reach
65"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Yahya
Soto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.3
12.7
50.5
Performance Avg
39.8
39
Quality of Victory
41
39
Momentum Score
20
Yahya
Soto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.2
38%
Strike Accuracy
53%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
2Clinch2
0Ground9
Yahya
Soto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
3.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Yahya
Soto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
20
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/40 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Yahya
Soto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
20
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Yahya
Soto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yahya
Soto
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
3.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
5.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
YahyaSoto
Strike Zones
Yahya
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSoto
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yahya targets the head (50% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Soto targets the head (93% of attacks) — Yahya absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yahya
RND
Soto
0/0R00/0
Yahya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Soto · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Yahya · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Victor HenryRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Ray RodriguezRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
Upcoming
Enrique BarzolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
Soto · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Sub · R1
Brett JohnsRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Marco BeltranRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R3
Chris BealRating 5.5Submission
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