METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
Las Vegas, USA
22 Feb 2014
Lightweight
VS
27%
Oliveira
73%
Koch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:24
★ Official Result
Erik KochwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:24
def. Rafaello Oliveira · UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Koch
→
Actual result
Koch wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Koch is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Koch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Koch has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraKoch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Koch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Koch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.2
19.2
25.0
Performance Avg
46.3
25
Quality of Victory
44
15
Momentum Score
84
Oliveira
Koch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
5.7
8.5
Style: Volume
4.2
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
19
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground16
Oliveira
Koch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Koch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Oliveira
Koch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Oliveira
Koch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Koch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
OliveiraKoch
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedKoch
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the body (100% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Koch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Koch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Erik KochKO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R2
Edson BarbozaKO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
W · Dec · R3
Yoislandy IzquierdoDecision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R2
Yves EdwardsKO/TKO
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · Sub · R2
Gleison TibauSubmission
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartDecision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05