UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
Las Vegas, USA
22 Feb 2014
Lightweight
VS
27%
Oliveira
73%
Koch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Koch
Koch is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Koch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Koch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Koch has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Koch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Koch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.2
19.2
25.0
Performance Avg
46.3
25
Quality of Victory
44
15
Momentum Score
84
Oliveira
Koch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
30%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
19
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground16
Oliveira
Koch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Koch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Oliveira
Koch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Oliveira
Koch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Koch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
OliveiraKoch
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedKoch
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the body (100% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Koch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Koch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Koch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Erik KochRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R2
Edson BarbozaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
W · Dec · R3
Yoislandy IzquierdoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R2
Yves EdwardsRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · Sub · R2
Gleison TibauRating 2.8Submission
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05