UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Middleweight
VS
41%
Giles
59%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
This is a genuine toss-up — Giles at 41% vs Meerschaert at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Meerschaert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Meerschaert throws more volume but Giles connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Giles's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Giles
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+77"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Giles
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
56.7
41.9
Performance Avg
48.2
36
Quality of Victory
50
72
Momentum Score
91
Giles
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Giles
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Giles
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Giles
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Giles
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
11
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Giles
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
GilesMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Giles
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Giles targets the head (100% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (50% of attacks) — Giles absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Giles
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
Giles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Giles · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
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Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
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Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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