METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Featherweight
VS
45%
Ige
55%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:56
★ Official Result
Melquizael CostawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:56
def. Dan Ige · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ige at 45% vs Costa at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ige's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
IgeCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ige
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
35
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ige
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
59.4
46.3
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
42
53
Momentum Score
84
Ige
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
5.4
Style: Pressure
6.1
4.7
Style: Volume
4.8
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
2
Body
7
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch4
0Ground2
Ige
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ige
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/30 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Ige
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Ige
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
57%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ige
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
IgeCosta
Strike Zones
Ige
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCosta
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ige targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ige absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ige
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ige · Last 5
Upcoming
David MartinezNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · KO · R1
Melquizael CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
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UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeKO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
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