UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Featherweight
VS
45%
Ige
55%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Ige at 45% vs Costa at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Costa throws more volume but Ige connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ige's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ige
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ige
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
59.4
46.3
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
42
53
Momentum Score
84
Ige
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
2
Body
7
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch4
0Ground2
Ige
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ige
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/30 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Ige
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Ige
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
57%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ige
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
IgeCosta
Strike Zones
Ige
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCosta
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ige targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ige absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ige
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ige · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Ige · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 5.5Decision
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W · KO · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
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