UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Las Vegas, USA
18 Sept 2021
Bantamweight
VS
97%
Jackson
3%
Buys
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jackson
Jackson is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jackson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Jackson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Buys has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jackson
Buys
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'5"
75"+
Reach
67"
34
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jackson
Buys
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.4
1.9
51.6
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Jackson
Buys
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
29%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Jackson
Buys
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jackson
Buys
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Jackson
Buys
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Jackson
Buys
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jackson
Buys
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
JacksonBuys
Strike Zones
Jackson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBuys
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jackson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Buys absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Buys targets the body (67% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jackson
RND
Buys
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Buys · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Jackson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
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W · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
Buys · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Marcus McGheeRating 3.2KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · KO · R2
Bruno SilvaRating 3.6KO/TKO
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