UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Middleweight
VS
71%
Gastelum
29%
Marquardt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
16.8
47.4
Performance Avg
48.6
42
Quality of Victory
46
28
Momentum Score
59
Gastelum
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
8
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance6
1Clinch0
13Ground0
Gastelum
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Gastelum
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
59
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Gastelum
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
69%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Marquardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
GastelumMarquardt
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMarquardt
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (69% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Marquardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Marquardt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05