UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Las Vegas, USA
20 Mar 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
28%
Reneau
72%
Chiasson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
CFR 24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiasson
Chiasson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Reneau throws more volume but Chiasson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reneau's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiasson has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reneau
Chiasson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+72"
48
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reneau
Chiasson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
61.5
44.1
Performance Avg
53.0
46
Quality of Victory
50
15
Momentum Score
96
Reneau
Chiasson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
11
1
Body
3
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch6
0Ground2
Reneau
Chiasson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reneau
Chiasson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/17 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Reneau
Chiasson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
96
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Reneau
Chiasson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reneau
Chiasson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
ReneauChiasson
Strike Zones
Reneau
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedChiasson
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reneau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Chiasson targets the head (73% of attacks) — Reneau absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reneau
RND
Chiasson
0/0R00/0
Reneau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Chiasson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Reneau · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Miesha TateRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Cat ZinganoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
Chiasson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · R2
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 4.9UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Pannie KianzadRating 5Submission
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