UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
44%
Neal
56%
Medic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Medic
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 44% vs Medic at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Medic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medic has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Neal
Medic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Neal
Medic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
71.6
51.7
Performance Avg
62.7
48
Quality of Victory
58
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Medic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
63%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
6
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Medic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Medic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Neal
Medic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Neal
Medic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Medic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.1
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
NealMedic
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMedic
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (33% of attacks) — Medic absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Medic targets the body (60% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Medic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Medic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Medic · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert UrbinaRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Punahele SorianoRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1KO/TKO
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