METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Neal
57%
Medic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:19
★ Official Result
Uros MedicwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:19
def. Geoff Neal · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Medic
→
Actual result
Medic wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 43% vs Medic at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Medic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medic has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NealMedic
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Neal
Medic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Neal
Medic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
72.8
51.7
Performance Avg
64.7
48
Quality of Victory
59
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Medic
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
9.2
3.1
Style: Volume
1.4
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
6
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Medic
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Medic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Neal
Medic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Neal
Medic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Medic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.2
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
NealMedic
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMedic
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (33% of attacks) — Medic absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Medic targets the body (60% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Medic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Medic · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Daniel RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert UrbinaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Punahele SorianoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01