UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Welterweight
VS
60%
Alves
40%
Lazzez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alves
Alves holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Lazzez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Lazzez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lazzez has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Lazzez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+76"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Lazzez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
26.1
49.3
Performance Avg
35.0
49
Quality of Victory
25
30
Momentum Score
39
Alves
Lazzez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
7
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
4Clinch2
6Ground0
Alves
Lazzez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Lazzez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Alves
Lazzez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Lazzez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Lazzez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
AlvesLazzez
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedLazzez
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (53% of attacks) — Lazzez absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Lazzez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Lazzez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lazzez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Lazzez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.2Submission
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Ange LoosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Warlley AlvesRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07