UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
Newark, USA
19 Mar 2011
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Faber
58%
Wineland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wineland
This is a genuine toss-up — Faber at 42% vs Wineland at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Faber connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Faber's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Wineland has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Faber
Wineland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+69"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Faber
Wineland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
28.2
49.4
Performance Avg
45.0
42
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
78
Faber
Wineland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
32%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
4
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance3
2Clinch1
4Ground0
Faber
Wineland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.4
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Faber
Wineland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/46 fights
Chin rating based on
16/40 fights
Faber
Wineland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Faber
Wineland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
83%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Faber
Wineland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
5.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
FaberWineland
Strike Zones
Faber
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedWineland
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Faber targets the head (78% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Wineland targets the head (75% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Faber
RND
Wineland
0/0R00/0
Faber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Wineland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Faber · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Wineland · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07