UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
90%
Soszynski
10%
Gusmao
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Soszynski
Soszynski is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Soszynski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Soszynski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Soszynski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Soszynski
Gusmao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"
Reach
48+
Age
49
Open Stance
Stance
Orthodox
Soszynski
Gusmao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
2.1
50.5
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
75
Momentum Score
0
Soszynski
Gusmao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
0
Body
8
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
14Distance13
2Clinch4
2Ground0
Soszynski
Gusmao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Soszynski
Gusmao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/38 fights
Chin rating based on
2/9 fights
Soszynski
Gusmao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Soszynski
Gusmao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Soszynski
Gusmao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SoszynskiGusmao
Strike Zones
Soszynski
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedGusmao
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Soszynski targets the head (83% of attacks) — Gusmao absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Gusmao targets the body (47% of attacks) — Soszynski absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Soszynski
RND
Gusmao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Soszynski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gusmao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Soszynski · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Igor PokrajacRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Mike MassenzioRating 4.5Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
W · Dec · R3
Goran ReljicRating 4.5Decision
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11
L · KO · R2
Stephan BonnarRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · R3
Stephan BonnarRating 4.5UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
Gusmao · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Krzysztof SoszynskiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · Dec · R3
Jon JonesRating 7.3Decision
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08