UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Middleweight
VS
44%
Heinisch
56%
Akhmedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
IH
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
14 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 24
OA
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21 – 6
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Akhmedov

This is a genuine toss-up — Heinisch at 44% vs Akhmedov at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Heinisch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Akhmedov has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Heinisch
Akhmedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.7
30.2
39.1
Performance Avg
47.0
37
Quality of Victory
36
50
Momentum Score
100
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
15
5
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance16
3Clinch2
2Ground0
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
40
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Heinisch
Akhmedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Heinisch
Akhmedov
Striking4.2 / 3.5Volume6.2 / 6.6Grappling1.6 / 2.5Wrestling1.1 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure3.6 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Heinisch
Strike Zones
Akhmedov
Heinisch
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD3BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Akhmedov
Attacking
15HEAD3BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Heinisch targets the head (70% of attacks) — Akhmedov absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (83% of attacks) — Heinisch absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Heinisch
RND
Akhmedov
0/0R00/0

Heinisch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.8L5.5L6.1W5.8L4.2L2018-112019-082020-062021-07
WinLossTrend

Akhmedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W2.6L4.5W5.0W4.0L4.5L4.5W6.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W6.3L5.2W5.5L2013-112015-122019-032021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Heinisch · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · 2021-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Akhmedov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

News & Media

Ian Heinisch · Omari Akhmedov
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