UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
35%
Maia
65%
O'Neill
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
Jennifer Maia
21 – 10
5'4"64" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
Casey
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11 – 2
Striker2-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: O'Neill

O'Neill holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

O'Neill has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

O'Neill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Maia
O'Neill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+69"
37
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
O'Neill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
58.5
38.6
Performance Avg
56.5
31
Quality of Victory
44
45
Momentum Score
58
Maia
O'Neill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
3.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
42
Head
37
4
Body
9
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
35Distance43
12Clinch4
0Ground0
Maia
O'Neill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maia
O'Neill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/31 fights
Chin rating based on
8/13 fights
Maia
O'Neill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
58
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Maia
O'Neill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
O'Neill
Striking1.0 / 6.5Volume7.7 / 4.2Grappling3.3 / 2.1Wrestling2.3 / 1.5Submission1.7 / 1.7Pressure2.7 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
2.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Maia
Strike Zones
O'Neill
Maia
Attacking
42HEAD4BODY1LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD9BODY1LEGS47 absorbed
O'Neill
Attacking
37HEAD9BODY1LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
42HEAD4BODY1LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (89% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯O'Neill targets the head (79% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
O'Neill
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.8L5.2W6.9L4.5W5.8L7.1L5.1W5.7W6.2L2018-072019-112021-072022-112023-10
WinLossTrend

O'Neill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L2.8L6.2W5.4W2021-022021-102023-032024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Maryna MorozRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Manon FiorotRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

O'Neill · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Ariane da SilvaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Roxanne ModafferiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02

News & Media

Jennifer Maia · Casey O'Neill
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