UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
97%
Garcia
3%
Ontiveros
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garcia
Garcia is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 71 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ontiveros has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garcia
Ontiveros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Garcia
Ontiveros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.5
1.9
65.0
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
Garcia
Ontiveros
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
17Ground1
Garcia
Ontiveros
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Ontiveros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
44
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Garcia
Ontiveros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Garcia
Ontiveros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Ontiveros
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GarciaOntiveros
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedOntiveros
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (90% of attacks) — Ontiveros absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Ontiveros targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Ontiveros
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Garcia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ontiveros · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Garcia · Last 5
Upcoming
Diego LopesUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Ontiveros · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Gabriel BenitezRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Steve GarciaRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10