METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
97%
Garcia
3%
Ontiveros
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:51
★ Official Result
Steve GarciawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:51
def. Charlie Ontiveros · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garcia
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Garcia is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 67 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Risk flags
Garcia's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ontiveros has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarciaOntiveros
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garcia
Ontiveros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Garcia
Ontiveros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.1
1.9
62.1
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
Garcia
Ontiveros
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
2.5
Style: Volume
0.0
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
17Ground1
Garcia
Ontiveros
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Garcia
Ontiveros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
44
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Garcia
Ontiveros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Garcia
Ontiveros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Ontiveros
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GarciaOntiveros
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedOntiveros
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (90% of attacks) — Ontiveros absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Ontiveros targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Ontiveros
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Garcia · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Diego LopesKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Ontiveros · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Gabriel BenitezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10