UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Nashville, USA
1 Apr 2009
Middleweight
VS
89%
Simpson
11%
McKenzie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:40
AS
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12 – 5
6'0"73" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
TM
Tim McKenzie
14 – 9
Well-Rounded43 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Simpson

Simpson is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Simpson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Simpson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Simpson
McKenzie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
51
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simpson
McKenzie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
2.2
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Simpson
McKenzie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
25%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
2Clinch0
11Ground0
Simpson
McKenzie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Simpson
McKenzie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
1/23 fights
Simpson
McKenzie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Simpson
McKenzie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Simpson
McKenzie
Striking4.1 / 0.0Volume7.0 / 0.0Grappling1.7 / 0.0Wrestling1.2 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Simpson
Strike Zones
McKenzie
Simpson
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
McKenzie
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (69% of attacks) — McKenzie absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯McKenzie targets the head (100% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Simpson
RND
McKenzie
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Simpson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.4W4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2009-042010-062011-072012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Simpson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

McKenzie · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Aaron SimpsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann · 2009-04

News & Media

Aaron Simpson · Tim McKenzie
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