UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Wichita, USA
9 Mar 2019
Featherweight
VS
62%
Dawson
38%
Erosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Erosa has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Erosa throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dawson
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+74"
32+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Dawson
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
39.6
57.5
Performance Avg
46.2
39
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
26
Dawson
Erosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
5
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
17Ground2
Dawson
Erosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
5
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Dawson
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Dawson
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Erosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
DawsonErosa
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedErosa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
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