UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Brooklyn, USA
11 Feb 2017
Lightweight
VS
18%
Lentz
82%
Makhachev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makhachev
Makhachev is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 59 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Lentz throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+70"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lentz
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
74.5
45.3
Performance Avg
69.8
35
Quality of Victory
53
53
Momentum Score
100
Lentz
Makhachev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
20
0
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground19
Lentz
Makhachev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lentz
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
16 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Lentz
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
16-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Lentz
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
65%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
8
9
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lentz
Makhachev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
LentzMakhachev
Strike Zones
Lentz
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedMakhachev
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (87% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lentz
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02