METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Nottingham, United Kingdom
29 Sept 2012
Catch Weight
VS
24%
Johnson
76%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:34
DJ
DaMarques Johnson
"Darkness"
15 – 15
6'1"75" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 18
Gunnar
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19 – 6
Submission Hunter38 yrsSwitch72" reach5'11"
CFR 57
★ Official Result
Gunnar NelsonwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:34
def. DaMarques Johnson · UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Nelson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Johnson
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
56.8
48.7
Performance Avg
52.8
55
Quality of Victory
46
59
Momentum Score
61
Johnson
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
7.5
0.8
Style: Volume
2.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground6
Johnson
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
6.9
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
8.0
2
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/30 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Johnson
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Johnson
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
8
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Nelson
Striking5.8 / 1.3Volume0.8 / 2.9Grappling4.0 / 6.9Wrestling2.8 / 4.8Submission5.0 / 8.0Pressure8.2 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Johnson
Strike Zones
Nelson
Johnson
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Johnson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Gunnar Nelson
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Mike Swick
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
John Maguire
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Clay Harvison
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R2
Amir Sadollah
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin Holland
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan Barberena
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi Sato
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert Burns
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon Edwards
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

News & Media

DaMarques Johnson · Gunnar Nelson
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