UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Nottingham, United Kingdom
29 Sept 2012
Catch Weight
VS
24%
Johnson
76%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Johnson
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
56.8
48.7
Performance Avg
52.8
55
Quality of Victory
46
59
Momentum Score
61
Johnson
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
69%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground6
Johnson
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/30 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Johnson
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Johnson
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
8
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
JohnsonNelson
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedNelson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Mike SwickRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
John MaguireRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Clay HarvisonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R2
Amir SadollahRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
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