METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Edmonton, Canada
2 Nov 2024
Heavyweight
VS
55%
Romanov
45%
Nascimento
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexandr RomanovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rodrigo Nascimento · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Romanov
→
Actual result
Romanov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Romanov at 55% vs Nascimento at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Romanov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Romanov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RomanovNascimento
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Romanov
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+80"
35
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Romanov
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
41.9
52.6
Performance Avg
41.5
41
Quality of Victory
31
70
Momentum Score
73
Romanov
Nascimento
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
3.5
4.8
Style: Volume
7.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
12
1
Body
3
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
24Distance20
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Romanov
Nascimento
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Romanov
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Romanov
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
73
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Romanov
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Romanov
Nascimento
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
RomanovNascimento
Strike Zones
Romanov
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedNascimento
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Romanov targets the head (81% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Nascimento targets the head (60% of attacks) — Romanov absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Romanov
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovDecision
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L · KO · R1
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
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Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Nascimento · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiDecision
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W · Dec · R3
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