UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Edmonton, Canada
2 Nov 2024
Heavyweight
VS
55%
Romanov
45%
Nascimento
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Romanov
This is a genuine toss-up — Romanov at 55% vs Nascimento at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Romanov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Romanov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Romanov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Romanov
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+80"
35
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Romanov
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
41.9
52.6
Performance Avg
41.5
41
Quality of Victory
31
70
Momentum Score
73
Romanov
Nascimento
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
12
1
Body
3
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
24Distance20
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Romanov
Nascimento
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.5
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Romanov
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Romanov
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
73
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Romanov
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Romanov
Nascimento
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
RomanovNascimento
Strike Zones
Romanov
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedNascimento
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Romanov targets the head (81% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Nascimento targets the head (60% of attacks) — Romanov absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Romanov
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
Romanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Nascimento · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Alexander VolkovRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Nascimento · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 4.5Decision
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