METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2014
Flyweight
VS
44%
Scoggins
56%
Ortiz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JS
Justin Scoggins
11 – 5
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
DO
Dustin Ortiz
19 – 8
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 17
★ Official Result
Dustin OrtizwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Justin Scoggins · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ortiz
→
Actual result
Ortiz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Scoggins at 44% vs Ortiz at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Scoggins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Scoggins's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ScogginsOrtiz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Scoggins
Ortiz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
66"+
Reach
65"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Scoggins
Ortiz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
17.2
38.0
Performance Avg
47.8
34
Quality of Victory
42
39
Momentum Score
45
Scoggins
Ortiz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
1.2
63%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
7Clinch3
1Ground0
Scoggins
Ortiz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Scoggins
Ortiz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Scoggins
Ortiz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Scoggins
Ortiz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Scoggins
Ortiz
Striking3.4 / 6.1Volume6.9 / 5.1Grappling1.8 / 1.2Wrestling1.3 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.1 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Scoggins
Strike Zones
Ortiz
Scoggins
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Ortiz
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Scoggins targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ortiz targets the head (71% of attacks) — Scoggins absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Scoggins
RND
Ortiz
0/0R00/0

Scoggins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W4.5W3.2L2.8L6.9L2013-122014-092016-112018-07
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W3.6L5.0W5.8W5.2W5.5L2013-112014-112016-122018-072019-01
WinLossTrend

Scoggins · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Sub · R2
Yuta SasakiRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Sub · R2
Pedro MunhozRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Ray BorgRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Josh SampoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Matheus NicolauRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
W · KO · R1
Hector SandovalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

News & Media

Justin Scoggins · Dustin Ortiz
← Back to fights
DAFABETBet on UFC & MMA · Competitive odds on every main card
18+ · Gamble ResponsiblyBET NOW ↗
🥊 Bet Now
Our trusted bookmakers
Trusted Bookmakers
⚡
Cloudbet
Crypto sports betting
CRYPTO
🎁 New customer offer: 100% up to 5 BTC welcome bonus
BET NOW→
🎯
Dafabet
MMA & UFC specialist
SPORTS
🎁 New customer offer: Competitive odds on every main card
BET NOW→
🏙️
London Bet
The Capital's Choice
UK
🎁 New customer offer: New customer offer — great odds on MMA & UFC
BET NOW→
18+ · Gamble Responsibly. Odds shown are best available and subject to change. Combatrics may earn commission from bookmaker links. If gambling is affecting you, visit BeGambleAware.org.
🥊
Combatrics Support
Online · Usually replies quickly

👋 Got a question about a fighter, stat or fight? Drop us a message and we'll get back to you.

Combatrics

Powered by Combatrics · We typically reply within a few hours