UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Las Vegas, USA
12 Oct 2024
Flyweight
VS
58%
Carpenter
42%
Rocha
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:12
Clayton
Clayton Carpenter
8 – 3
5'6"66" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 53
Lucas
Lucas Rocha
"Fenomeno"
18 – 2
Well-Rounded25 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'3"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carpenter

This is a genuine toss-up — Carpenter at 58% vs Rocha at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.

Rocha has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Carpenter
Rocha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
66"+
Reach
64"
29
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carpenter
Rocha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
37.9
47.0
Performance Avg
35.0
52
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
46
Carpenter
Rocha
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
3.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
59%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
5
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance7
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Carpenter
Rocha
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carpenter
Rocha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
2/20 fights
Carpenter
Rocha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Carpenter
Rocha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carpenter
Rocha
Striking0.8 / 1.0Volume0.8 / 9.0Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.2 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Carpenter
Strike Zones
Rocha
Carpenter
Attacking
3HEAD5BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Rocha
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD5BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carpenter targets the body (45% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Rocha targets the head (63% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carpenter
RND
Rocha
0/0R00/0

Carpenter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.4W6.6L2.6L6.4L2023-022024-102025-012025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Rocha · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0103.6L4.5W2024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Carpenter · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02

Rocha · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Stewart NicollRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Clayton CarpenterRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

News & Media

Clayton Carpenter · Lucas Rocha
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