METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Las Vegas, USA
12 Oct 2024
Flyweight
VS
58%
Carpenter
42%
Rocha
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:12
★ Official Result
Clayton CarpenterwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:12
def. Lucas Rocha · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carpenter
→
Actual result
Carpenter wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Carpenter at 58% vs Rocha at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CarpenterRocha
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Carpenter
Rocha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
66"+
Reach
64"
30
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carpenter
Rocha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
37.9
47.0
Performance Avg
35.0
52
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
46
Carpenter
Rocha
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
1.5
0.8
Style: Volume
9.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
5
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance7
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Carpenter
Rocha
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carpenter
Rocha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
2/20 fights
Carpenter
Rocha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Carpenter
Rocha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carpenter
Rocha
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
CarpenterRocha
Strike Zones
Carpenter
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRocha
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carpenter targets the body (45% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Rocha targets the head (63% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carpenter
RND
Rocha
0/0R00/0
Carpenter · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaDecision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
Rocha · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Stewart NicollDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Clayton CarpenterSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10