UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
Vancouver, Canada
14 Jun 2014
Welterweight
VS
48%
MacDonald
52%
Woodley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Woodley
This is a genuine toss-up — MacDonald at 48% vs Woodley at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: MacDonald throws more volume but Woodley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Woodley has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
MacDonald
Woodley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
74"
36+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Woodley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
19.4
51.3
Performance Avg
58.9
39
Quality of Victory
58
61
Momentum Score
40
MacDonald
Woodley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
3
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground0
MacDonald
Woodley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
MacDonald
Woodley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
16/26 fights
MacDonald
Woodley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
MacDonald
Woodley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Woodley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
MacDonaldWoodley
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedWoodley
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (60% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Woodley targets the head (60% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Woodley
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09