Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

3 Aug 2024

Lightweight

54%

Alvarez

46%

Brener

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 3 · 3:36

Joel Alvarez

"El Fenomeno"

23 – 4

6'3"77" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter

CFR 59

Elves Brener

16 – 6

Striker3-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"

CFR 51

★ Official Result

Joel AlvarezwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:36

def. Elves Brener · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Alvarez

→

Actual result

Alvarez wins

KO/TKO · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 54% vs Brener at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Alvarez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

AlvarezBrener

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Alvarez

Brener

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"+

Height

5'10"

77"+

Reach

72"

Age

+28

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Alvarez

Brener

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

59.3

51.3

57.2

Performance Avg

47.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Alvarez

Brener

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.3

/ 10

7.7

/ 10

8.1

Style: Pressure

6.2

2.3

Style: Volume

3.7

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

19Distance12

20Clinch0

0Ground0

Alvarez

Brener

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

0.8

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

3.8

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Alvarez

Brener

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

6 fights ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/27 fights

Chin rating based on

7/22 fights

Alvarez

Brener

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

Alvarez

Brener

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

88%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvarez

Brener

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.7

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.8

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

3.8

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

8.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.2

2.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.7

Alvarez

Strike Zones

Brener

Alvarez

Attacking

39 landed

Absorbing

12 absorbed

Brener

Attacking

12 landed

Absorbing

39 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Brener absorbs 85% of strikes there

🎯Brener targets the head (42% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvarez

RND

Brener

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Chidi Njokuani

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

L · Sub · R2

Yaroslav Amosov

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Vicente Luque

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

W · KO · R1

Drakkar Klose

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

W · KO · R3

Elves Brener

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

Brener · Last 5

Upcoming

Josiah Harrell

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09

L · Dec · R3

Esteban Ribovics

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08

L · KO · R3

Joel Alvarez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

L · Dec · R3

Myktybek Orolbai

Decision

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

W · KO · R1

Kaynan Kruschewsky

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Joel Alvarez · Elves Brener

← Back to fights