UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Alvarez
46%
Brener
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:36
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
6'3"77" reachOrthodox33 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 61
Elves
Elves Brener
16 – 6
Striker3-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvarez

This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 54% vs Brener at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez
Brener
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
72"
33
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Brener
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
51.3
59.7
Performance Avg
47.0
51
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
52
Alvarez
Brener
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.8
57%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
5
5
Body
2
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
19Distance12
20Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Brener
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Brener
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/22 fights
Alvarez
Brener
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
52
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Alvarez
Brener
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvarez
Brener
Striking6.5 / 7.7Volume2.5 / 3.7Grappling3.3 / 0.8Wrestling2.3 / 0.6Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure8.3 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Alvarez
Strike Zones
Brener
Alvarez
Attacking
33HEAD5BODY1LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY5LEGS12 absorbed
Brener
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY5LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
33HEAD5BODY1LEGS39 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Brener absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Brener targets the head (42% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvarez
RND
Brener
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Brener · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W7.1L5.3L6.2L2023-022023-072023-112024-052024-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Brener · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Esteban RibovicsRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · KO · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Joel Alvarez · Elves Brener
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