UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Las Vegas, USA
23 Mar 2024
Lightweight
VS
46%
Holobaugh
54%
Ogden
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kurt
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22 – 10
5'11"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Trey
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
18 – 7
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ogden

This is a genuine toss-up — Holobaugh at 46% vs Ogden at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Holobaugh has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Holobaugh has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holobaugh's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holobaugh
Ogden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
70"
Reach
+72"
39
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holobaugh
Ogden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.1
37.3
31.2
Performance Avg
35.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
20
Momentum Score
40
Holobaugh
Ogden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Holobaugh
Ogden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holobaugh
Ogden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/25 fights
Holobaugh
Ogden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Holobaugh
Ogden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holobaugh
Ogden
Striking0.4 / 1.0Volume4.4 / 9.0Grappling5.2 / 2.4Wrestling3.6 / 1.7Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Holobaugh
Strike Zones
Ogden
Holobaugh
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Ogden
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ogden absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ogden targets the head (75% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holobaugh
RND
Ogden
0/0R00/0

Holobaugh · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.8L1.5L5.7L5.2W5.6L4.5W6.4L3.0L2013-042019-052024-072025-05
WinLossTrend

Ogden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0107.0L4.9W6.8L4.5W5.0W5.7L2022-042022-092023-042024-032024-072025-01
WinLossTrend

Holobaugh · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Sub · R2
Austin HubbardRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Ogden · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loik RadzhabovRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Upcoming
Nikolas Motta
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04

News & Media

Kurt Holobaugh · Trey Ogden
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